Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Irrational recovery in Nifty

On Feb 09, 2010 Nifty opened flat and was trading negative one hour into the trade. However it recovered thereafter to make higher highs and higher lows on the hourly chart. The index has been holding on to its 20DMA pegged at 4655 and has bounced back from there--a bullish sign in the short term. On the daily chart, the NSE benchmark has fallen in a 5 - wave pattern from 5302 to 4675 and expected to retrace around 50% i.e. 5010 levels of the fall. The index had formed an outside bar and has given a breakout on the upside, which is a bullish sign for the market. So, until 4675 is intact the index should retrace the fall and take resistance at 20 DMA.

The index is currently trading below its 20 DMA and 40 DMA placed at 4986 and 4999
respectively, which are crucial resistance levels going forward. The momentum indicator (KST) is on the verge of giving a positive crossover and trading below the zero line.

On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving average (HMA) pegged at 4747, which is a crucial support in the immediate run. The momentum indicator (KST) has given a positive crossover and trading around the zero line. The market breadth was positive with 707 advances and 587 declines on the NSE.

Both the indices ended higher—Nifty 32 points and the Sensex 106 points up.

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