Friday, November 20, 2009

Bulls stage fierce recovery to 5050 levels

Today, Nifty staged a strong bounce-back from its intraday
low, giving a close above the psychologically important
5050, which is 78.6% retracement of the previous fall.
However, to gain more strength, it needs to close above
5080. On lower side, 4920 was held as good support in
the short term. Going forward too, till this level is held
we may see good amount of buying. Nifty posted a weekly
positive close; Toast to the bulls. The index also closed
above 5050 giving further conviction for the up-move—
Cheers to the bulls. But, till the swing high is not surpassed
we maintain our bias down, as today’s move is anticipated
just as retracement of this fall.
On daily chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 daily moving
average (DMA) and 40 DMA at 4914 and 4894 respectively,
which are now supports in the near term. The momentum
indicator (KST) has given positive crossover and is close
to the zero line. The market breadth was positive with
736 advances and 544 declines on the NSE and 1,519
advances and 1,321 declines on the BSE.
On hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving
average (HMA) and 40 HMA at 5001 and 5027 respectively,
which are now supports in the short term. The momentum
indicator (KST) has given positive crossover and is trading
close to the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex ended in green gaining 63 and 236 points
each. Of the 30 stocks of Sensex, Hindalco Industries (up
3.47%) and ACC (up 4.55%) were the top gainers, while
Bharti Airtel (down 1.40 %) and Reliance Infrastructure
(down 0.62%) were the top losers.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Resistance at 5050 held and Rising wedge broken

Nifty finally could not sustain above 5050 despite several
attempts by the bulls and the bears were successful in
dragging it below 5000. The downturn has resumed exactly
from 78.6% retracement of the fall from 5182 to 4538,
which signals that the pullback of the fall is almost over.
This will be confirmed once we get a weekly negative
close. The index was moving up with an absolute negative
divergence between prices and volumes, with prices and
oscillators giving an early sign of weakening momentum
and limited upside. However, on the lower side 16370 on
Sensex and 4860 on Nifty are crucial supports.
On daily chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 daily moving
average (DMA) and 40DMA at 4890 and 4964 respectively,
which are now the supports in the near term. Momentum
indicator KST has given positive crossover and is close to
the zero line. The market breadth was negative with 386
advances and 877 declines on NSE and 1,131 advances
and 1,740 declines on BSE.
On hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving
average (HMA) and 40 HMA at 5040 and 5021 respectively,
which are now the resistances in the short term.
Momentum indicator KST has given negative crossover
and is trading below the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex ended in red losing 66 and 213 points
respectively. Of the 30 stocks of Sensex, ACC (up 0.41%)
and HDFC (up 0.44%) were the top gainers while Hindalco
Industries (down 3.46 %) and Reliance Infra (down 3.90%)
were the top losers.

Rising wedge- bearish pattern

Nifty is managing to stay above 5050, but struggling to
move higher on account of weakening momentum on
hourly charts. There’s been a continuous negative
divergence between the index price and momentum, so
the only thing which can lead to higher moves is
maintaining the averages on hourly as well as daily charts.
The volumes too are drying at higher levels. So, in short
term Nifty above 5050 can go up to 5150, which is also
our short-term target. Nifty is forming a rising wedge
pattern which favours bears. In nutshell, there is a crucial
support at 5030 and 4940 on the lower side, and till those
are maintained we may see some buying at lower levels.
On the daily chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 daily
moving average (DMA) and 40 DMA at 4894 and 4901
respectively, which are now the supports in the near term.
The momentum indicator (KST) has given positive
crossover and is close to the zero line. The market breadth
was positive with 720 advances and 555 declines on NSE
and 1,635 advances and 1,273 declines on BSE.
On hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving
average (HMA) and 40 HMA at 5048 and 4997 respectively,
which now are the supports in the short term. The
momentum indicator (KST) has given negative crossover
and is trading close to the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex ended in red marginally 8 and 52 points
respectively. Of the 30 stocks of Sensex, Tata Motors (up
3.14%) and TISCO (up 1.68%) were the top performers
while ICICI Bank (down 1.47%) and Reliance Infrastructure
(down 3.20%) were the weak performers.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Volume and price-Negative divergence

Nifty opened negative but recovered from its lows in the
second half of today’s session giving a Doji close in the
end. This signals that traders are indecisive about the
next move on the index. Nifty traded in the range of 5000-
5080, closing just above the 5050 mark, which is 78.6%
retracement of the fall from 5180 to 4538. Still the close
above this level is not convincing enough. Hence, Nifty
has to sustain above this level to gain further strength.
On lower side, 4940 and 4860 are the two crucial supports
which are holding Nifty up. So till these levels are
maintained we may see some buying on the lower side.
The interesting thing about this rally is that there is a
negative divergence between volumes and index price--
the price is rising at declining volume because of which
the whole move becomes a bit skeptical. So the volume
should support the further increase in price or else we
might see the downtrend resuming.
On the daily chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 daily
moving average (DMA) and 40 DMA at 4897 and 4961
respectively, which are now the supports in the near term.
The momentum indicator (KST) has given positive
crossover and is close to the zero line. The market
breadth, the number of advancing shares to declining
shares, was negative with 592 advances and 678 declines
on the NSE and 1,361 advances and 1,503 declines on the
BSE.
On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly
moving average (HMA) and 40 HMA at 5011 and 4891
respectively, which are now the supports in the short term.
The momentum indicator (KST) has given negative
crossover and is trading close to the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex ended in green marginally, up by 4 points
and 18 points respectively. Of the 30 stocks that make
the Sensex, Tata Consultancy Services (up 3.67%) and Hero
Honda Motors (up 2.41%) were the top performers while
ONGC (down 2.29%) and ACC (down 2%) were the weak
performers.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Bulls Vs Bears Neck to neck

Nifty opened in green and traded in a very narrow range
of 5030-5080. Today, Nifty finally managed to surpass 5050
level, which is 78.6% retracement of the fall from 5182 to
4538, but has just closed near it, which is a dicy signal
going ahead. Above 5050 levels, gates are now open for
our short-term target of 5150. The daily oscillator has
given positive signal, which is good sign in the near term,
but it is trading below the zero reference line, which is
the only concern in the medium term. The volume remains
average throughout the rally. So, a convincing close above
78.6% retracement level will only help Nifty to gain further
strength. Till then 4940 and 4860 remain crucial supports
on lower side.
On daily chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 daily moving
average (DMA) and 40DMA at 4901 and 4956 respectively,
which are now supports in the near term. The momentum
indicator (KST) has given positive crossover and is around
the zero line. The market breadth was positive with 837
advances and 439 declines on the NSE and 1,780 advances
and 1,142 declines on the BSE.
On hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving
average (HMA) and 40HMA at 5011 and 4891 respectively,
which are now supports in the short term. The momentum
indicator (KST) has given negative crossover and is trading
above the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex gained 59 and 184 points each. Of the
30 stocks of Sensex, Maruti Suzuki India (up 5.45%) and
Reliance Communications (up 3.05%) were the top
performers while Tata Consultancy Services (down 0.63%)
was the weak performer.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Nifty Triple top formation

Nifty traded in a range of 5030-4940 finally closing around
5000. It is struggling to sustain above 5000 as there exist
a crucial resistance at 5050 which is 78.6% retracement
of the fall from 5182-4538. On the down side 4940 acted
as a support below which 4850 is the crucial support for
the market. The hourly oscillators are in sell mode giving
negative divergence. Nifty has made triple top above
5000, so going forward it becomes important for Nifty to
surpass it to gain more strength failing which open gates
for lower levels. So, above are the levels which remain
key as breach of any will lead to major move.
On the daily chart, Nifty is trading below its 20DMA and
40DMA i.e. 4907 and 4951 respectively, which are now
supports in the near term. The momentum indicator (KST)
has given positive crossover and is around the zero line.
The market breadth was negative with 617 advances and
651 declines on the NSE and 1422 advances and 1440
declines on the BSE.
On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20HMA and
40HMA i.e. 4969 and 4891 respectively, which are now
supports in the short term. The momentum indicator (KST)
has given negative crossover and is trading above the
zero line.
Nifty and Sensex gained 46 and 153 points each. Of the
30 Stocks of Sensex Maruti (up 3.90%) and Ongc (up
3.07%) were the Top performers while Ranbaxy (down
0.38%) and Cipla (down 0.38%) were the weak performers.

Nifty 5050 level is crucial

The Nifty opened in the negative on weak global cues but
has taken support at the 61.8% retracement of the fall which
is 4940. On the upside 5050 remains a crucial resistance
that is 78.6% retracement of the fall from 5182 to 4538. In
yesterday’s session too, it had taken resistance around 5050
after which we had a sharp sell-off. So, in order to gain
more strength the Nifty needs to cross the 5050 level
convincingly. On the lower side, 4940 and 4850 remain nearterm
supports.
On the hourly charts, the KST momentum indicator has a
given a negative crossover and is trading above the zero
line and has given negative divergence. The Nifty is trading
above the 20-HMA and 40-HMA, ie 4949 and 4859
respectively, which are supports in the short run. The market
breadth is positive with 787 advances and 421 declines.

Of the 30 stocks of the Sensex, Maruti (up 2.37%) and TCS
(up 1.96 %) are the top gainers while ONGC (down 0.11%) is
the weak performer.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Sharp U-turn

Falling from 4940 in yesterday’s trade and closing in red
was quite convincing that Nifty has started its next leg
down. However in today’s trade the index made a sharp
turnaround and swifly surfassed 4940-4970, which was
our reversal level. So, now, Nifty is trading above 61.8%
of the fall from 5182 to 4538, which signals that it can
retrace more from here till 78.6% or even the whole move.
So, in short term, we revise our bias to buy with a target
of 5150 and a reversal down below 4850. We maintain
our medium term bias down with a reversal above 5180
only.
On the daily chart, Nifty is trading below its 20 daily
moving average (DMA) and 40 DMA at 4920 and 4943
respectively, which are now supports in the near term.
The momentum indicator (KST) has given positive
crossover and is trading below the zero line. The market
breadth was positive with 901 advances and 383 declines
on the NSE and 1,781 advances and 1,105 declines on the
BSE.
On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly
moving average (HMA) and 40HMA at 4892 and 4791
respectively, which are now supports in the short term.
The momentum indicator (KST) has given positive
crossover and is trading above the zero line.
Nifty and the Sensex gained 122 and 409 points
respectively. Of the 30 stocks of the Sensex, Reliance
Energy (up 5.31%) and Infosys Technologies (up 4.08%)
and TISCO (up 4.28%) were the top performers.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Break in four-day winning streak on NSE and BSE

After opening in green on very strong global cues, Nifty
gave up all its gains and finally ended in red snapping
four-day long winning streak. Nifty has turned down right
from 61.8% retracement of the fall from 5182-4538. So if
this high is held, the next leg down will ensue and will
drag Nifty down quite lower. The downtrend which started
from 5182 gets more confirmed when we observe the
broader indices such BSE Metal, BSE Midcap etc, which
had five wave declines signaling that this pullback is just
a retracement of the fall and once it gets over the next
leg down with five wave declines should start. Also, there
is a gap and averages resistance at higher levels near
4940-4970. So till Nifty trades below these levels we
maintain our bias down.
On daily chart, Nifty is trading below its 20 daily moving
average (DMA) and 40DMA at 4922 and 4938 respectively,
which are strong resistance in the near term. The
momentum indicator (KST) has given positive crossover
and is below the zero line. The market breadth was
negative with 565 advances and 715 declines on the NSE
and 1,329 advances and 1,551 declines on the BSE.
On hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving
average (HMA) and 40 HMA at 4839 and 4758 respectively,
which are now supports in the short term. The momentum
indicator (KST) has given negative crossover and is trading
above the zero line.
Nifty and the Sensex shed 17 and 58 points respectively.
Of the 30 stocks of the Sensex, Tata Motors (up 2.26%)
and State Bank of India (up 2.14%) were the top gainers
while Hero Honda Motors (down 3.27%) and Bharti Airtel
(down 4.47%) were the top losers.

Friday, November 6, 2009

Pullback nearing end Strong resistance at 4860

Nifty traded quite volatile in the first half but finally closed
up continuing the pullback, which started yesterday. On
the upside, Nifty has a resistance at 4810 and 4860 and
this pullback should end around these levels after which
the next round down will resume. The momentum
indicators continue to be in sell mode, which also signals
weakness going forward. So in nutshell this rally should
be taken as a selling opportunity around current levels
eyeing for Nifty below 4500 which is also our short term
target.
On the daily chart, Nifty is trading below its 20 daily
moving average (DMA) and 40 DMA at 4938 and 4930
respectively, which are resistances in the near term. The
momentum indicator (KST) has given negative crossover
and is below the zero line. The market breadth was
positive with 951 advances and 322 declines on the NSE
and 1,872 advances and 929 declines on the BSE.
On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly
moving average (HMA) and 40HMA at 4670 and 4743
respectively, which are now resistances in the short term.
The momentum indicator (KST) has given positive
crossover and is trading below the zero line.
Nifty and the Sensex gained 55 and 152 points each. Of
the 30 stocks of the Sensex Reliance Communications (up
5.34%) and Reliance Energy (up 5.59%) were the top
gainers while State Bank of India (down 1.14%) and Gujarat
Ambuja (down 3.33%) were the top losers.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Sharp sell off Markets Below 20 WMA

Nifty traded in a range of 4750-4650 in the first half of the session, but ended the day with a steep cut on the downside. Nifty has been trading way below its daily averages, but has given its first close below its 20 weeeklymoving (WMA). This signals a strong medium-term bearish outlook. On the higher side, 4750 remains a crucialresistance and 4350 a short-term support.

On the daily chart, Nifty is trading below its 20 daily moving average (DMA) and 40 DMA at 4966 and 4923 respectively, which are resistances in the near term. The momentum indicator (KST) has given a negative crossover and is trading below the zero line. The market breadth was negative with 168 advances and 1,122 declines on the NSE and 596 advances and 2,215 declines on the BSE.

On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading below its 20 hourly moving average (HMA) and 40HMA at 4747 and 4840 respectively, which are now resistances in the short term. The momentum indicator (KST) has given negative crossover and is trading below the zero line.

Nifty and the Sensex were down 148 and 491 points for the day. Of the 30 stocks of the Sensex, Maruti Suzuki India (up 1.13%) and Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (up 2.90%) were the top gainers while Hindalco Industries (down 10.50%) and ACC (down 6.20%) were the top losers.