The Nifty index surged higher on Monday.
We think this face of advancement will be substantial, as it is a third wave within a larger fifth wave.
Ultimate targets in the area of 6000 to 6300 are not unreasonable.
The trend in Indian equities is firmly higher.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Nifty get support at 5,330
The markets moved in an extremely tight range for the third straight week. The Nifty made a lower high of 5,466 and found support at 5,349. The index ended the week with a loss of 82 points at 5,367.
The Sensex moved in a range of 355 points. The index touched a high of 18,194 and then slipped to a low of 17,839. The Sensex finally settled with a loss of 263 points at 17,868.
For the last three weeks, it seems that the Nifty is facing resistance as it approaches the 5,500 mark. At the same time, the index has been able to seek support around 5,350. Next week, the index may seek support around 5,330. However, a breakout in either direction, that is, above 5,500 or below 5,330, could trigger the next move.
In August, the Nifty is likely to move in a broad range of 300 points. On the upside, the index is likely to advance towards 5465-5495-5525. On the downside, the index may decline to 5270-5240-5210.
The Sensex moved in a range of 355 points. The index touched a high of 18,194 and then slipped to a low of 17,839. The Sensex finally settled with a loss of 263 points at 17,868.
For the last three weeks, it seems that the Nifty is facing resistance as it approaches the 5,500 mark. At the same time, the index has been able to seek support around 5,350. Next week, the index may seek support around 5,330. However, a breakout in either direction, that is, above 5,500 or below 5,330, could trigger the next move.
In August, the Nifty is likely to move in a broad range of 300 points. On the upside, the index is likely to advance towards 5465-5495-5525. On the downside, the index may decline to 5270-5240-5210.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Weekly momentum turns positive
The Nifty has achieved the conservative target of the
inverted head-and-shoulder pattern quite smoothly. Now,
on the upside there is a resistance at the previous high of
5400. Hence the Nifty needs to clear that obstacle to go
higher. On the lower side, the hourly averages are good
short-term supports. Now, above 5330 the Nifty is likely
to make a new high, ie above 5400, to achieve the
aggressive target of the inverted head-and-shoulder
pattern that is at 5500. The interesting point to note is
that the weekly KST has come into buy mode which is quite
positive for the medium-term bulls too. Hence, we maintain
our short-term bias up.
inverted head-and-shoulder pattern quite smoothly. Now,
on the upside there is a resistance at the previous high of
5400. Hence the Nifty needs to clear that obstacle to go
higher. On the lower side, the hourly averages are good
short-term supports. Now, above 5330 the Nifty is likely
to make a new high, ie above 5400, to achieve the
aggressive target of the inverted head-and-shoulder
pattern that is at 5500. The interesting point to note is
that the weekly KST has come into buy mode which is quite
positive for the medium-term bulls too. Hence, we maintain
our short-term bias up.
Saturday, April 10, 2010
Markets in the new Resistance Zone
The markets, as expected, crossed the 18,000-mark during the week, all due to a solid start. Despite Thursday’s weakness, the markets were able to extend gains for the ninth straight week.
The Sensex touched a high of 18,048 in the middle of the week. Thereafter, it corrected and ended with a gain of 241 points at 17,933. In the process, the index gained 12.7 per cent (2,017 points) at 17,933.
Going by the current trend, it seems the markets are likely to start the week on a positive note, however, the second half of the week could see selling pressure. The nine-week rally may end this week, if the index is unable to sustain above 18,050.
The momentum indicators on the weekly charts are indicating tiredness, and we may see net losses, albeit marginal, next week. The index is likely to face considerable resistance around 18,075, above which it may spurt up to 18,150. On the downside, the index is likely to find support around 17,790-17,700. A break of 17,700 could trigger significant selling during the week.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 109 points, it touched a high of 5,400 and a low of 5,290. The Nifty finally settled with a gain of 71 points at 5,362.
The Nifty is likely to face considerable resistance around 5,432, which is the higher end of the Bollinger band on the weekly charts. The daily chart indicates resistance around 5,407. Bulls should continue to have the upper hand, as long as the index sustains above 5,400. On the negative front, selling pressure may intensify when the index slips below 5,320.
The Sensex touched a high of 18,048 in the middle of the week. Thereafter, it corrected and ended with a gain of 241 points at 17,933. In the process, the index gained 12.7 per cent (2,017 points) at 17,933.
Going by the current trend, it seems the markets are likely to start the week on a positive note, however, the second half of the week could see selling pressure. The nine-week rally may end this week, if the index is unable to sustain above 18,050.
The momentum indicators on the weekly charts are indicating tiredness, and we may see net losses, albeit marginal, next week. The index is likely to face considerable resistance around 18,075, above which it may spurt up to 18,150. On the downside, the index is likely to find support around 17,790-17,700. A break of 17,700 could trigger significant selling during the week.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 109 points, it touched a high of 5,400 and a low of 5,290. The Nifty finally settled with a gain of 71 points at 5,362.
The Nifty is likely to face considerable resistance around 5,432, which is the higher end of the Bollinger band on the weekly charts. The daily chart indicates resistance around 5,407. Bulls should continue to have the upper hand, as long as the index sustains above 5,400. On the negative front, selling pressure may intensify when the index slips below 5,320.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Weekly gains in Nifty continues
On April 01, 2010 Nifty closed in green today, preventing a negative weekly
close—thereby keeping hopes alive for the bulls and testing
the patience of bears. The daily momentum continues to be
in a sell mode, whereas the hourly momentum has come into a
buy mode but trading below the zero reference line, thus
falling short of confirming that the trend has again reversed
on the upside. The market breadth has improved over the last
couple of days but the volumes continue to be low even after
the breakout from the high of the bearish engulfing candlestick
pattern formed on the monthly charts on the Sensex—this is
not a good sign. Nifty formed a hammer candlestick pattern in
Q3 and Doji star candlestick pattern in Q4 almost gaining
nothing in the six months. Nifty has formed a 5 wave declining
pattern on hourly charts in the fall since Tuesday and has
retraced almost 61.8% of its fall from 5330 to 5235. Going ahead,
the high of 5330 remains a crucial resistance and 5266 a crucial
support for if the index breaches 5266, it will slide sharply. So,
keep an eye on these two levels i.e. 5330 and 5266—the next
trend deciders. We continue to maintain our short-term bias
down with the reversal above 5330.
Nifty on hourly chart is trading above its 20 hourly moving
average (HMA) and 40HMA pegged at 5277 and 5276
respectively, which are now its short-term supports. The
hourly momentum indicator KST has turned into buy mode
and now trading below the zero reference line.
Nifty on daily chart is trading above its 20 daily moving average
(DMA) and 40 daily exponential moving average (DEMA) placed
at 5196 and 5028 respectively, which are now its short-term
supports. The momentum indicator (KST) has given a negative
crossover and trading above the zero line. The market breadth
was positive with 1,099 advances and 253 declines on the NSE
and 2,212 advances and 608 declines on the BSE.
The Nifty and Sensex were up by 41 points and 165 points
respectively.
close—thereby keeping hopes alive for the bulls and testing
the patience of bears. The daily momentum continues to be
in a sell mode, whereas the hourly momentum has come into a
buy mode but trading below the zero reference line, thus
falling short of confirming that the trend has again reversed
on the upside. The market breadth has improved over the last
couple of days but the volumes continue to be low even after
the breakout from the high of the bearish engulfing candlestick
pattern formed on the monthly charts on the Sensex—this is
not a good sign. Nifty formed a hammer candlestick pattern in
Q3 and Doji star candlestick pattern in Q4 almost gaining
nothing in the six months. Nifty has formed a 5 wave declining
pattern on hourly charts in the fall since Tuesday and has
retraced almost 61.8% of its fall from 5330 to 5235. Going ahead,
the high of 5330 remains a crucial resistance and 5266 a crucial
support for if the index breaches 5266, it will slide sharply. So,
keep an eye on these two levels i.e. 5330 and 5266—the next
trend deciders. We continue to maintain our short-term bias
down with the reversal above 5330.
Nifty on hourly chart is trading above its 20 hourly moving
average (HMA) and 40HMA pegged at 5277 and 5276
respectively, which are now its short-term supports. The
hourly momentum indicator KST has turned into buy mode
and now trading below the zero reference line.
Nifty on daily chart is trading above its 20 daily moving average
(DMA) and 40 daily exponential moving average (DEMA) placed
at 5196 and 5028 respectively, which are now its short-term
supports. The momentum indicator (KST) has given a negative
crossover and trading above the zero line. The market breadth
was positive with 1,099 advances and 253 declines on the NSE
and 2,212 advances and 608 declines on the BSE.
The Nifty and Sensex were up by 41 points and 165 points
respectively.
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Nifty Close to bearish engulfing
After giving a breakout from the triangular pattern, Nifty on Mar 26, 2010 continues to trade on upside surpassing the resistance of 5270 and just shy of 5310—the previous swing high made in January when it had formed a monthly bearish engulfing pattern. The index is trading in an upward parallel channel and above 5310. The next target is 5470—the upper end of the parallel
channel. On the lower side, 5260 and 5210 are good short-term supports. The daily KST continues to be in a sell mode, but the hourly KST has come into buy mode making the bulls comfortable. Nifty has given its seventh consecutive positive weekly close in a row, which depicts the strength of bulls. With this, we continue to maintain our short- and medium-term bias up.
Nifty on the hourly chart is trading above its 20 hourly moving average (HMA) and 40HMA placed at 5240 and 5234 respectively, which are now its short-term supports. The hourly momentum indicator KST has turned into buy mode and is now trading near the zero reference line.
Nifty on the daily chart is trading above its 20 daily moving average (DMA) and 40 daily exponential moving average (DEMA) pegged at 5136 and 5082 respectively, which are now its short-term supports. The momentum indicator (KST) has given a negative crossover and is trading above the zero line. The market breadth was negative with 572 advances and 772 declines on the NSE and 1,200 advances and 1,651 declines on the BSE.
The Nifty and the Sensex added 22 and 86 points to its kitty respectively.
channel. On the lower side, 5260 and 5210 are good short-term supports. The daily KST continues to be in a sell mode, but the hourly KST has come into buy mode making the bulls comfortable. Nifty has given its seventh consecutive positive weekly close in a row, which depicts the strength of bulls. With this, we continue to maintain our short- and medium-term bias up.
Nifty on the hourly chart is trading above its 20 hourly moving average (HMA) and 40HMA placed at 5240 and 5234 respectively, which are now its short-term supports. The hourly momentum indicator KST has turned into buy mode and is now trading near the zero reference line.
Nifty on the daily chart is trading above its 20 daily moving average (DMA) and 40 daily exponential moving average (DEMA) pegged at 5136 and 5082 respectively, which are now its short-term supports. The momentum indicator (KST) has given a negative crossover and is trading above the zero line. The market breadth was negative with 572 advances and 772 declines on the NSE and 1,200 advances and 1,651 declines on the BSE.
The Nifty and the Sensex added 22 and 86 points to its kitty respectively.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Nifty has posted a positive weekly close
On Feb 11, 2010 Nifty has posted a positive weekly close, which clearly signals that this is a pullback of the fall from 5310 to 4675, which was a five-wave decline. From here, Nifty may test its 20 daily moving average (DMA), which is near 38.2% retracement level and this is also our short-term target. So, on a short-term basis the trend is up for the pullback, till 4748 holds and on the medium term the trend remains down. On the daily charts, the momentum indicator is in buy whereas on the weekly charts the indicator is in sell. This shows that the index is just retracing its fall, which again will be followed by an impulsive down-move. The strong resistance on the upside is at the 20 weekly exponential moving average (WEMA), hence the pullback can stretch to the maximum till the 20 WEMA.
On the daily chart, Nifty is trading below its 20 DMA and 40 daily exponential moving average (DEMA) pegged at 4941 and 4980 respectively, which are the near-term resistance. The momentum indicator (KST) has given a positive crossover and is trading below the zero line. The market breadth was positive with 799 advances and 492 declines on the NSE and 1,617 advances and 1,194 declines on the BSE.
On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving average (HMA) and 40 HMA placed at 4795 and 4775 respectively, which are now the short-term supports. The momentum indicator (KST) has given positive crossover and is trading above the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex were 70 and 230 points up respectively.
On the daily chart, Nifty is trading below its 20 DMA and 40 daily exponential moving average (DEMA) pegged at 4941 and 4980 respectively, which are the near-term resistance. The momentum indicator (KST) has given a positive crossover and is trading below the zero line. The market breadth was positive with 799 advances and 492 declines on the NSE and 1,617 advances and 1,194 declines on the BSE.
On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving average (HMA) and 40 HMA placed at 4795 and 4775 respectively, which are now the short-term supports. The momentum indicator (KST) has given positive crossover and is trading above the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex were 70 and 230 points up respectively.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Irrational recovery in Nifty
On Feb 09, 2010 Nifty opened flat and was trading negative one hour into the trade. However it recovered thereafter to make higher highs and higher lows on the hourly chart. The index has been holding on to its 20DMA pegged at 4655 and has bounced back from there--a bullish sign in the short term. On the daily chart, the NSE benchmark has fallen in a 5 - wave pattern from 5302 to 4675 and expected to retrace around 50% i.e. 5010 levels of the fall. The index had formed an outside bar and has given a breakout on the upside, which is a bullish sign for the market. So, until 4675 is intact the index should retrace the fall and take resistance at 20 DMA.
The index is currently trading below its 20 DMA and 40 DMA placed at 4986 and 4999
respectively, which are crucial resistance levels going forward. The momentum indicator (KST) is on the verge of giving a positive crossover and trading below the zero line.
On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving average (HMA) pegged at 4747, which is a crucial support in the immediate run. The momentum indicator (KST) has given a positive crossover and trading around the zero line. The market breadth was positive with 707 advances and 587 declines on the NSE.
Both the indices ended higher—Nifty 32 points and the Sensex 106 points up.
The index is currently trading below its 20 DMA and 40 DMA placed at 4986 and 4999
respectively, which are crucial resistance levels going forward. The momentum indicator (KST) is on the verge of giving a positive crossover and trading below the zero line.
On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving average (HMA) pegged at 4747, which is a crucial support in the immediate run. The momentum indicator (KST) has given a positive crossover and trading around the zero line. The market breadth was positive with 707 advances and 587 declines on the NSE.
Both the indices ended higher—Nifty 32 points and the Sensex 106 points up.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Market Now Making Base Before Starting the New Phase of Bull Run
The markets ended lower for the second straight week as rate hike fears, global cues and futures & options expiry weighed on the sentiment. The Sensex fell below 16,000 for a brief while and touched a low of 15,982. It eventually ended with a loss of 502 points at 16,358.
Sensex has broken the 16,100 support during the week, the trend becomes negative for the next next month as well. The index will have to overcome the 17,470 level to change its quarterly trend. One needs to closely watch the 15,380 level, as a breach of this level may change the long-term trend into negative. In the short term, the 16,900-17,100 range is likely to prove a major hurdle for the Sensex.
Next week, the Sensex is likely to face resistance around 16,700-16,805-16,915. On the downside, the index is likely to find support around 16,015-15,910-15,800.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 270 points, from a high of 5,036, the index dropped to a low of 4,766, and finally settled with a loss of 154 points at 4,882.
Momentum indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence and the Stochastic slow are in the oversold zone, while the 9-day Relative Strength Index and the Directional Index are indicating a pullback in the short term.
The Nifty long-term support is at 4,615, which is its 200-day Daily Moving Average. The Fibonacci retracement of 2009 indicates support at 4,180. Next week, the index may find support at 4,825-4,750-4,715, while it may face resistance around 4,985-5,015-5,050.
In the Monthly charts the MACD indicater for Nifty and Sensex are below 0 line. Now next month i.e. in Febuary 2010 the Market will consolidate and by the second week of March 2010 the market will start its next course of Bull Run just as it started in 2003.
Sensex has broken the 16,100 support during the week, the trend becomes negative for the next next month as well. The index will have to overcome the 17,470 level to change its quarterly trend. One needs to closely watch the 15,380 level, as a breach of this level may change the long-term trend into negative. In the short term, the 16,900-17,100 range is likely to prove a major hurdle for the Sensex.
Next week, the Sensex is likely to face resistance around 16,700-16,805-16,915. On the downside, the index is likely to find support around 16,015-15,910-15,800.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 270 points, from a high of 5,036, the index dropped to a low of 4,766, and finally settled with a loss of 154 points at 4,882.
Momentum indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence and the Stochastic slow are in the oversold zone, while the 9-day Relative Strength Index and the Directional Index are indicating a pullback in the short term.
The Nifty long-term support is at 4,615, which is its 200-day Daily Moving Average. The Fibonacci retracement of 2009 indicates support at 4,180. Next week, the index may find support at 4,825-4,750-4,715, while it may face resistance around 4,985-5,015-5,050.
In the Monthly charts the MACD indicater for Nifty and Sensex are below 0 line. Now next month i.e. in Febuary 2010 the Market will consolidate and by the second week of March 2010 the market will start its next course of Bull Run just as it started in 2003.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Trendline broken Resistance at hourly averages
Today on Jan 22, 2010 Nifty has finally breached the major trend line support, where it had stopped yesterday after breaking out from wedge pattern. It took support at the low from where it started its final rally, which is also the close of the previous hammer candlestick pattern. Hence, 4943 was a crucial support which market did hold. Now, going ahead, 5170 remains a very strong resistance in the medium term and 5130 a strong resistance in the short term. Nifty has also posted a negative weekly close with strong volumes on futures and options front--one of the indicators that the index has begun its next move down.
In nutshell, the bounce if any will not be sustainable and hence should be used for going short. On the daily chart, Nifty is trading below its 20 daily moving average (DMA) and 40 daily exponential moving average (DEMA) i.e. 5211 and 5134 respectively, which are resistances in the near term. The momentum indicator (KST) has given negative crossover and is below the zero line. The market breadth was badly negative with 313 advances and 1,021 declines on the NSE and 842 advances and 2,043 declines on the BSE.
On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading below its 20 hourly moving average (HMA) and 40HMA i.e. 5214 and 5221 respectively, which are now the resistances in the short term. The momentum indicator (KST) has given positive crossover but is trading below the zero line.
In nutshell, the bounce if any will not be sustainable and hence should be used for going short. On the daily chart, Nifty is trading below its 20 daily moving average (DMA) and 40 daily exponential moving average (DEMA) i.e. 5211 and 5134 respectively, which are resistances in the near term. The momentum indicator (KST) has given negative crossover and is below the zero line. The market breadth was badly negative with 313 advances and 1,021 declines on the NSE and 842 advances and 2,043 declines on the BSE.
On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading below its 20 hourly moving average (HMA) and 40HMA i.e. 5214 and 5221 respectively, which are now the resistances in the short term. The momentum indicator (KST) has given positive crossover but is trading below the zero line.
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