The markets ended lower for the second straight week as rate hike fears, global cues and futures & options expiry weighed on the sentiment. The Sensex fell below 16,000 for a brief while and touched a low of 15,982. It eventually ended with a loss of 502 points at 16,358.
Sensex has broken the 16,100 support during the week, the trend becomes negative for the next next month as well. The index will have to overcome the 17,470 level to change its quarterly trend. One needs to closely watch the 15,380 level, as a breach of this level may change the long-term trend into negative. In the short term, the 16,900-17,100 range is likely to prove a major hurdle for the Sensex.
Next week, the Sensex is likely to face resistance around 16,700-16,805-16,915. On the downside, the index is likely to find support around 16,015-15,910-15,800.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 270 points, from a high of 5,036, the index dropped to a low of 4,766, and finally settled with a loss of 154 points at 4,882.
Momentum indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence and the Stochastic slow are in the oversold zone, while the 9-day Relative Strength Index and the Directional Index are indicating a pullback in the short term.
The Nifty long-term support is at 4,615, which is its 200-day Daily Moving Average. The Fibonacci retracement of 2009 indicates support at 4,180. Next week, the index may find support at 4,825-4,750-4,715, while it may face resistance around 4,985-5,015-5,050.
In the Monthly charts the MACD indicater for Nifty and Sensex are below 0 line. Now next month i.e. in Febuary 2010 the Market will consolidate and by the second week of March 2010 the market will start its next course of Bull Run just as it started in 2003.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Trendline broken Resistance at hourly averages
Today on Jan 22, 2010 Nifty has finally breached the major trend line support, where it had stopped yesterday after breaking out from wedge pattern. It took support at the low from where it started its final rally, which is also the close of the previous hammer candlestick pattern. Hence, 4943 was a crucial support which market did hold. Now, going ahead, 5170 remains a very strong resistance in the medium term and 5130 a strong resistance in the short term. Nifty has also posted a negative weekly close with strong volumes on futures and options front--one of the indicators that the index has begun its next move down.
In nutshell, the bounce if any will not be sustainable and hence should be used for going short. On the daily chart, Nifty is trading below its 20 daily moving average (DMA) and 40 daily exponential moving average (DEMA) i.e. 5211 and 5134 respectively, which are resistances in the near term. The momentum indicator (KST) has given negative crossover and is below the zero line. The market breadth was badly negative with 313 advances and 1,021 declines on the NSE and 842 advances and 2,043 declines on the BSE.
On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading below its 20 hourly moving average (HMA) and 40HMA i.e. 5214 and 5221 respectively, which are now the resistances in the short term. The momentum indicator (KST) has given positive crossover but is trading below the zero line.
In nutshell, the bounce if any will not be sustainable and hence should be used for going short. On the daily chart, Nifty is trading below its 20 daily moving average (DMA) and 40 daily exponential moving average (DEMA) i.e. 5211 and 5134 respectively, which are resistances in the near term. The momentum indicator (KST) has given negative crossover and is below the zero line. The market breadth was badly negative with 313 advances and 1,021 declines on the NSE and 842 advances and 2,043 declines on the BSE.
On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading below its 20 hourly moving average (HMA) and 40HMA i.e. 5214 and 5221 respectively, which are now the resistances in the short term. The momentum indicator (KST) has given positive crossover but is trading below the zero line.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Bulls stage fierce recovery to 5050 levels
Today, Nifty staged a strong bounce-back from its intraday
low, giving a close above the psychologically important
5050, which is 78.6% retracement of the previous fall.
However, to gain more strength, it needs to close above
5080. On lower side, 4920 was held as good support in
the short term. Going forward too, till this level is held
we may see good amount of buying. Nifty posted a weekly
positive close; Toast to the bulls. The index also closed
above 5050 giving further conviction for the up-move—
Cheers to the bulls. But, till the swing high is not surpassed
we maintain our bias down, as today’s move is anticipated
just as retracement of this fall.
On daily chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 daily moving
average (DMA) and 40 DMA at 4914 and 4894 respectively,
which are now supports in the near term. The momentum
indicator (KST) has given positive crossover and is close
to the zero line. The market breadth was positive with
736 advances and 544 declines on the NSE and 1,519
advances and 1,321 declines on the BSE.
On hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving
average (HMA) and 40 HMA at 5001 and 5027 respectively,
which are now supports in the short term. The momentum
indicator (KST) has given positive crossover and is trading
close to the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex ended in green gaining 63 and 236 points
each. Of the 30 stocks of Sensex, Hindalco Industries (up
3.47%) and ACC (up 4.55%) were the top gainers, while
Bharti Airtel (down 1.40 %) and Reliance Infrastructure
(down 0.62%) were the top losers.
low, giving a close above the psychologically important
5050, which is 78.6% retracement of the previous fall.
However, to gain more strength, it needs to close above
5080. On lower side, 4920 was held as good support in
the short term. Going forward too, till this level is held
we may see good amount of buying. Nifty posted a weekly
positive close; Toast to the bulls. The index also closed
above 5050 giving further conviction for the up-move—
Cheers to the bulls. But, till the swing high is not surpassed
we maintain our bias down, as today’s move is anticipated
just as retracement of this fall.
On daily chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 daily moving
average (DMA) and 40 DMA at 4914 and 4894 respectively,
which are now supports in the near term. The momentum
indicator (KST) has given positive crossover and is close
to the zero line. The market breadth was positive with
736 advances and 544 declines on the NSE and 1,519
advances and 1,321 declines on the BSE.
On hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving
average (HMA) and 40 HMA at 5001 and 5027 respectively,
which are now supports in the short term. The momentum
indicator (KST) has given positive crossover and is trading
close to the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex ended in green gaining 63 and 236 points
each. Of the 30 stocks of Sensex, Hindalco Industries (up
3.47%) and ACC (up 4.55%) were the top gainers, while
Bharti Airtel (down 1.40 %) and Reliance Infrastructure
(down 0.62%) were the top losers.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Resistance at 5050 held and Rising wedge broken
Nifty finally could not sustain above 5050 despite several
attempts by the bulls and the bears were successful in
dragging it below 5000. The downturn has resumed exactly
from 78.6% retracement of the fall from 5182 to 4538,
which signals that the pullback of the fall is almost over.
This will be confirmed once we get a weekly negative
close. The index was moving up with an absolute negative
divergence between prices and volumes, with prices and
oscillators giving an early sign of weakening momentum
and limited upside. However, on the lower side 16370 on
Sensex and 4860 on Nifty are crucial supports.
On daily chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 daily moving
average (DMA) and 40DMA at 4890 and 4964 respectively,
which are now the supports in the near term. Momentum
indicator KST has given positive crossover and is close to
the zero line. The market breadth was negative with 386
advances and 877 declines on NSE and 1,131 advances
and 1,740 declines on BSE.
On hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving
average (HMA) and 40 HMA at 5040 and 5021 respectively,
which are now the resistances in the short term.
Momentum indicator KST has given negative crossover
and is trading below the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex ended in red losing 66 and 213 points
respectively. Of the 30 stocks of Sensex, ACC (up 0.41%)
and HDFC (up 0.44%) were the top gainers while Hindalco
Industries (down 3.46 %) and Reliance Infra (down 3.90%)
were the top losers.
attempts by the bulls and the bears were successful in
dragging it below 5000. The downturn has resumed exactly
from 78.6% retracement of the fall from 5182 to 4538,
which signals that the pullback of the fall is almost over.
This will be confirmed once we get a weekly negative
close. The index was moving up with an absolute negative
divergence between prices and volumes, with prices and
oscillators giving an early sign of weakening momentum
and limited upside. However, on the lower side 16370 on
Sensex and 4860 on Nifty are crucial supports.
On daily chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 daily moving
average (DMA) and 40DMA at 4890 and 4964 respectively,
which are now the supports in the near term. Momentum
indicator KST has given positive crossover and is close to
the zero line. The market breadth was negative with 386
advances and 877 declines on NSE and 1,131 advances
and 1,740 declines on BSE.
On hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving
average (HMA) and 40 HMA at 5040 and 5021 respectively,
which are now the resistances in the short term.
Momentum indicator KST has given negative crossover
and is trading below the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex ended in red losing 66 and 213 points
respectively. Of the 30 stocks of Sensex, ACC (up 0.41%)
and HDFC (up 0.44%) were the top gainers while Hindalco
Industries (down 3.46 %) and Reliance Infra (down 3.90%)
were the top losers.
Rising wedge- bearish pattern
Nifty is managing to stay above 5050, but struggling to
move higher on account of weakening momentum on
hourly charts. There’s been a continuous negative
divergence between the index price and momentum, so
the only thing which can lead to higher moves is
maintaining the averages on hourly as well as daily charts.
The volumes too are drying at higher levels. So, in short
term Nifty above 5050 can go up to 5150, which is also
our short-term target. Nifty is forming a rising wedge
pattern which favours bears. In nutshell, there is a crucial
support at 5030 and 4940 on the lower side, and till those
are maintained we may see some buying at lower levels.
On the daily chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 daily
moving average (DMA) and 40 DMA at 4894 and 4901
respectively, which are now the supports in the near term.
The momentum indicator (KST) has given positive
crossover and is close to the zero line. The market breadth
was positive with 720 advances and 555 declines on NSE
and 1,635 advances and 1,273 declines on BSE.
On hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving
average (HMA) and 40 HMA at 5048 and 4997 respectively,
which now are the supports in the short term. The
momentum indicator (KST) has given negative crossover
and is trading close to the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex ended in red marginally 8 and 52 points
respectively. Of the 30 stocks of Sensex, Tata Motors (up
3.14%) and TISCO (up 1.68%) were the top performers
while ICICI Bank (down 1.47%) and Reliance Infrastructure
(down 3.20%) were the weak performers.
move higher on account of weakening momentum on
hourly charts. There’s been a continuous negative
divergence between the index price and momentum, so
the only thing which can lead to higher moves is
maintaining the averages on hourly as well as daily charts.
The volumes too are drying at higher levels. So, in short
term Nifty above 5050 can go up to 5150, which is also
our short-term target. Nifty is forming a rising wedge
pattern which favours bears. In nutshell, there is a crucial
support at 5030 and 4940 on the lower side, and till those
are maintained we may see some buying at lower levels.
On the daily chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 daily
moving average (DMA) and 40 DMA at 4894 and 4901
respectively, which are now the supports in the near term.
The momentum indicator (KST) has given positive
crossover and is close to the zero line. The market breadth
was positive with 720 advances and 555 declines on NSE
and 1,635 advances and 1,273 declines on BSE.
On hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving
average (HMA) and 40 HMA at 5048 and 4997 respectively,
which now are the supports in the short term. The
momentum indicator (KST) has given negative crossover
and is trading close to the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex ended in red marginally 8 and 52 points
respectively. Of the 30 stocks of Sensex, Tata Motors (up
3.14%) and TISCO (up 1.68%) were the top performers
while ICICI Bank (down 1.47%) and Reliance Infrastructure
(down 3.20%) were the weak performers.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Volume and price-Negative divergence
Nifty opened negative but recovered from its lows in the
second half of today’s session giving a Doji close in the
end. This signals that traders are indecisive about the
next move on the index. Nifty traded in the range of 5000-
5080, closing just above the 5050 mark, which is 78.6%
retracement of the fall from 5180 to 4538. Still the close
above this level is not convincing enough. Hence, Nifty
has to sustain above this level to gain further strength.
On lower side, 4940 and 4860 are the two crucial supports
which are holding Nifty up. So till these levels are
maintained we may see some buying on the lower side.
The interesting thing about this rally is that there is a
negative divergence between volumes and index price--
the price is rising at declining volume because of which
the whole move becomes a bit skeptical. So the volume
should support the further increase in price or else we
might see the downtrend resuming.
On the daily chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 daily
moving average (DMA) and 40 DMA at 4897 and 4961
respectively, which are now the supports in the near term.
The momentum indicator (KST) has given positive
crossover and is close to the zero line. The market
breadth, the number of advancing shares to declining
shares, was negative with 592 advances and 678 declines
on the NSE and 1,361 advances and 1,503 declines on the
BSE.
On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly
moving average (HMA) and 40 HMA at 5011 and 4891
respectively, which are now the supports in the short term.
The momentum indicator (KST) has given negative
crossover and is trading close to the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex ended in green marginally, up by 4 points
and 18 points respectively. Of the 30 stocks that make
the Sensex, Tata Consultancy Services (up 3.67%) and Hero
Honda Motors (up 2.41%) were the top performers while
ONGC (down 2.29%) and ACC (down 2%) were the weak
performers.
second half of today’s session giving a Doji close in the
end. This signals that traders are indecisive about the
next move on the index. Nifty traded in the range of 5000-
5080, closing just above the 5050 mark, which is 78.6%
retracement of the fall from 5180 to 4538. Still the close
above this level is not convincing enough. Hence, Nifty
has to sustain above this level to gain further strength.
On lower side, 4940 and 4860 are the two crucial supports
which are holding Nifty up. So till these levels are
maintained we may see some buying on the lower side.
The interesting thing about this rally is that there is a
negative divergence between volumes and index price--
the price is rising at declining volume because of which
the whole move becomes a bit skeptical. So the volume
should support the further increase in price or else we
might see the downtrend resuming.
On the daily chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 daily
moving average (DMA) and 40 DMA at 4897 and 4961
respectively, which are now the supports in the near term.
The momentum indicator (KST) has given positive
crossover and is close to the zero line. The market
breadth, the number of advancing shares to declining
shares, was negative with 592 advances and 678 declines
on the NSE and 1,361 advances and 1,503 declines on the
BSE.
On the hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly
moving average (HMA) and 40 HMA at 5011 and 4891
respectively, which are now the supports in the short term.
The momentum indicator (KST) has given negative
crossover and is trading close to the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex ended in green marginally, up by 4 points
and 18 points respectively. Of the 30 stocks that make
the Sensex, Tata Consultancy Services (up 3.67%) and Hero
Honda Motors (up 2.41%) were the top performers while
ONGC (down 2.29%) and ACC (down 2%) were the weak
performers.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Bulls Vs Bears Neck to neck
Nifty opened in green and traded in a very narrow range
of 5030-5080. Today, Nifty finally managed to surpass 5050
level, which is 78.6% retracement of the fall from 5182 to
4538, but has just closed near it, which is a dicy signal
going ahead. Above 5050 levels, gates are now open for
our short-term target of 5150. The daily oscillator has
given positive signal, which is good sign in the near term,
but it is trading below the zero reference line, which is
the only concern in the medium term. The volume remains
average throughout the rally. So, a convincing close above
78.6% retracement level will only help Nifty to gain further
strength. Till then 4940 and 4860 remain crucial supports
on lower side.
On daily chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 daily moving
average (DMA) and 40DMA at 4901 and 4956 respectively,
which are now supports in the near term. The momentum
indicator (KST) has given positive crossover and is around
the zero line. The market breadth was positive with 837
advances and 439 declines on the NSE and 1,780 advances
and 1,142 declines on the BSE.
On hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving
average (HMA) and 40HMA at 5011 and 4891 respectively,
which are now supports in the short term. The momentum
indicator (KST) has given negative crossover and is trading
above the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex gained 59 and 184 points each. Of the
30 stocks of Sensex, Maruti Suzuki India (up 5.45%) and
Reliance Communications (up 3.05%) were the top
performers while Tata Consultancy Services (down 0.63%)
was the weak performer.
of 5030-5080. Today, Nifty finally managed to surpass 5050
level, which is 78.6% retracement of the fall from 5182 to
4538, but has just closed near it, which is a dicy signal
going ahead. Above 5050 levels, gates are now open for
our short-term target of 5150. The daily oscillator has
given positive signal, which is good sign in the near term,
but it is trading below the zero reference line, which is
the only concern in the medium term. The volume remains
average throughout the rally. So, a convincing close above
78.6% retracement level will only help Nifty to gain further
strength. Till then 4940 and 4860 remain crucial supports
on lower side.
On daily chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 daily moving
average (DMA) and 40DMA at 4901 and 4956 respectively,
which are now supports in the near term. The momentum
indicator (KST) has given positive crossover and is around
the zero line. The market breadth was positive with 837
advances and 439 declines on the NSE and 1,780 advances
and 1,142 declines on the BSE.
On hourly chart, Nifty is trading above its 20 hourly moving
average (HMA) and 40HMA at 5011 and 4891 respectively,
which are now supports in the short term. The momentum
indicator (KST) has given negative crossover and is trading
above the zero line.
Nifty and Sensex gained 59 and 184 points each. Of the
30 stocks of Sensex, Maruti Suzuki India (up 5.45%) and
Reliance Communications (up 3.05%) were the top
performers while Tata Consultancy Services (down 0.63%)
was the weak performer.
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